Rename the Frame  Take one “hard” task and rewrite it as a question in a different dimension: Change “How far until X?” to “How long until X?” Solve the second version first. If clarity appears instantly, you weren’t stuck… you were misframing. Draft the Wrong Answer   Write one deliberate wrong guess about a decision or […]
Eight Tiny Experiments for Thinking in Better Frames Read More »
What if your daily mistakes weren’t evidence against you… but evidence about you? A court tries to assign blame. A lab tries to understand mechanisms. When you treat your mind like a lab, getting stuck becomes informative. The interesting data isn’t only the correct answer. It’s the strategy you tried first. The assumption you didn’t
Treat Your Mind Like a Lab, Not a Court Read More »
Why do people refuse a “perfectly rational” deal? Because rationality on paper ignores the part that matters in real life… constraints. Your mind isn’t only calculating payoff. It’s calculating survivability. How long can you keep playing before you go broke… financially, emotionally, or cognitively? A choice can be mathematically attractive and practically reckless at the
Expected Value Isn’t the Same as Wisdom Read More »
What small hesitation is shaping your behavior right now? Not the big obstacle… the tiny friction you keep stepping around. The awkward name you don’t want to mispronounce. The question you don’t want to “waste time” with. The unclear next step that makes you postpone. These barriers don’t look like failures. They look like minor
Tiny Barriers Create Big Silence Read More »
If wrong ideas are normal, why do they still derail people? Not because they appear… but because they stay unchallenged. Your intuition is not a liar; it’s a fast draft. Cognitive work begins when the draft becomes visible. Silence hides the model you’re using. And the model determines what you notice, what you ignore, and
Wrong Ideas Aren’t Dangerous… Unspoken Ones Are Read More »
What’s the fastest way to fail at something you could absolutely do well? Start by doing the work… before you decide what the work is. Most “hard problems” are just poorly framed problems wearing a costume. Your mind grabs the first handle it sees (distance, steps, details)… and then it commits. That commitment is expensive.
Change the Frame Before You Grind Read More »
This isn’t a trick you deploy once and forget. It’s a practice: ask a sharper question, collect what matters, model it honestly, decide out loud. Tools will change. Jargon will evolve. The work stays the same… reduce wishful thinking, increase useful action. When in doubt, return to first moves: name the null, set the stakes,
Closing Note: Statistics as a Practice (Not a Trick) Read More »
Set the Gate  Write the one question your model must answer. If you’re listing pairwise comparisons, you need ANOVA or planned contrasts… not whack-a-mole. Define “Meaningful” Before “Significant”   Pick the smallest effect that would change a choice. If your margin doesn’t steer behavior, you’re measuring trivia. Visual Proof of Life   Plot distributions and intervals before testing.
Eight Tiny Experiments for Decision-Ready Stats Read More »
Write the primary question first. Define the smallest effect worth acting on. Choose the model that answers that question once (t-test, ANOVA, chi-square, regression). Fix alpha and power up front. If you must test multiple things, protect alpha (planned contrasts, Holm/FDR). Keep data tidy: one row per unit, clear variable names, human-readable labels. Preflight with
Guardrails for Honest Testing (A Compact Playbook) Read More »
You don’t need the code to think statistically. Scan for four things: Surprise (the p-value under the null), Scope (degrees of freedom… how many comparisons the test effectively carried), Size (effect size with an interval), and Setup (design, sampling, measurement). If any link is weak, temper the headline. A tiny p with a tiny effect
Read Results Like a Pro (Even Without the Software) Read More »
