1) Draw Before You Measure
If you haven’t drawn the scatterplot, you haven’t earned r. Shape first, number second.
2) Check the Residuals
If the residuals curve, your relationship did too. Fit ideas, not just lines.
3) Try Spearman When Life Bends
Monotonic but curved? Spearman respects order without demanding straightness.
4) Simulate Your Intuition
When a probability feels weird, simulate 1,000 trials. Your gut learns faster by seeing frequencies.
5) The Complement Shortcut
Want “at least one”? Compute “none” and subtract from 1. Fewer mistakes, faster math.
6) Name the Denominator
Every percentage hides a denominator. Say it out loud before you argue about the result.
7) Base Rates Beat Hunches
Big-sounding conditional probabilities often shrink when you factor base rates. Do the Bayes move, even roughly.
8) Expected Value Is Policy, Not Magic
EV is a price tag on uncertainty. Use it to compare choices, then add variance to decide if you can stomach the ride.