Confidence Is a Promise, Not a Boast

A confidence interval isn’t swagger. It’s a promise about your process. You took a real sample, ran a repeatable recipe, and earned a range. If you replayed this moment a hundred times under the same rules, your range would catch the truth most of the time. That’s the deal. Headlines love a single number. Grown-up decisions love estimate ± margin. Pick a confidence level that fits the risk, say it plainly, and let the range be as wide as honesty requires. Confidence isn’t “I’m sure.” It’s “I’ll do this the same way tomorrow.”

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