Don’t let noise pick your narrative. If theory says “up,” preregister a one-sided test (greater than 0) before collecting data. If you genuinely don’t know, choose two-sided (not equal to 0). One-sided buys power only when you commit; post-hoc direction isn’t power, it’s wishful thinking. In all cases, the null is still “effect = 0.” The alternative is your bet on how the world works. Write it down. Time-stamp it. Then run the test and take your lumps. Pre-commitment protects you from accidental storytelling and makes victories credible. Reputation is a compounding asset; guard it with good fences.
