If you don’t name the null, your brain will. And it’s a generous storyteller. The null isn’t cynicism; it’s the control that keeps you from worshiping coincidence. “No difference. No association. No effect.” Boring? Good. That’s the point. Only when your data make that stance unlikely do you earn a new sentence. Begin by writing the null in plain language. Decide the alpha you’re willing to pay for being wrong. Then ask: if the null were true, how weird are my numbers? That’s what a p-value really measures… surprise under the null. Don’t confuse surprise with importance. Pair it with an effect size and an interval. One guards against noise; the others fight exaggeration. The result isn’t a drumroll. It’s a decision you can defend.
