One Test, Many Means: Why ANOVA Exists

T-tests shine when there are two groups. Add a third and you’re tilting at windmills… each pairwise test inflates your error, turning “maybe” into “must be.” ANOVA reframes the question: is between-group variation meaningfully larger than within-group noise? One gatekeeping test protects your alpha, then (if warranted) planned contrasts or honest post-hocs tell you where […]

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Confidence Intervals: Promises About Process, Not Fortune-Telling

A confidence interval isn’t “the range where the truth lives.” It’s a contract: repeat this method forever, and this style of interval would catch the truth at your chosen rate. That’s it. Want tighter bounds? Pay with more data or more discipline; don’t pay with wishful thinking. Before you compute anything, ask: what margin would

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Start With the Null… or You’ll Start With a Story

If you don’t name the null, your brain will. And it’s a generous storyteller. The null isn’t cynicism; it’s the control that keeps you from worshiping coincidence. “No difference. No association. No effect.” Boring? Good. That’s the point. Only when your data make that stance unlikely do you earn a new sentence. Begin by writing

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Picking Your Post-Hoc: Courage, Caution, and Context

Fisher’s LSD and Tukey’s HSD aren’t enemies; they’re personalities. LSD is powerful and liberal… great at finding differences with three simple groups, riskier with many. Tukey balances caution and power… steady, trusted, and happiest with equal sample sizes. Bonferroni is the seatbelt you never unbuckle; Sidak, a sleeker cousin. Games-Howell is your friend when variances

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Design the Lever: Manipulate What Actually Moves the Mean

Significance tests don’t create meaning… your design does. If your factor levels are cosmetic, ANOVA will dutifully compare cosmetics. The craft is identifying the construct that actually moves outcomes… then operationalizing it cleanly. Don’t toggle the nearest proxy; name the lever and build conditions that differ on that lever (not five things at once). Before

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Stats Software and ANOVA Without the Chaos

Tools don’t fail us; we fail to set them up for success. Any stats package will happily scramble your analysis if you paste unlabeled columns and hope for the best. Try this instead: keep tidy data, and dependent-variable columns and numeric factor columns with human-readable labels (e.g., “1=High-Impact, 2=No-Impact, 3=Personal Baseline”). Before any test, run

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Between vs. Within: The Story Hiding in Your Variance

Every dataset whispers two stories. “Within” is the human noise floor: mood, sleep, coffee, quirks. “Between” is what your design invited to happen. ANOVA’s brilliance is ratio, not rhetoric: mean square between/mean square within. High ratio? Your manipulation likely mattered. Low ratio? Your signal is still stuck in the room hum. Build the craft by

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The Gatekeeper Mindset: Why ANOVA Comes First

ANOVA isn’t the hero because it tells us everything… it’s the hero because it tells us whether there’s a “there” there. Before we chase pairwise stories, we ask: did something happen worth explaining? Think of it like a detective board (strings, pins, notes)… impressive, but meaningless if no crime occurred. The F-test is that threshold.

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Eight Tiny Experiments for Honest Statistics

One Big Question  Rewrite your study to ask a single, modelable question. If you hear yourself listing pairwise comparisons, you need ANOVA or a planned-contrast design. Define “Meaningful” First  Pick the smallest effect worth acting on. Decisions beat declarations; a tiny, “significant” blip may be operationally irrelevant. Visual First Pass  Plot group distributions and intervals. If the picture

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