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Prediction Is the Point
Good analysis upgrades your bets. If knowing X helps you predict Y better than chance, you’ve learned something you can use. Frame outputs as improved prediction and cost-aware decisions… not as proofs.
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Base Rates First
Before patterns, honor context. What’s common? What’s rare? Base rates anchor expectations, prevent over-reaction to noisy spikes, and make “lift” interpretable. Without them, every uptick looks like a revolution.
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Design for Refutation
Ask, What evidence would make me change my mind? Then design so that evidence is observable. Analyses built to be wrong are the ones that can be right.
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Visuals That Don’t Lie
Choose displays that respect perception: consistent scales, honest zeros when appropriate, proportional areas, uncertainty lines. A chart is a claim about reality… treat it like one.
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Uncertainty Onstage
Confidence intervals, prediction intervals, scenario ranges… pick one and show it. Stakeholders handle uncertainty better than surprises. Hide it and you erode trust.
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Reproducibility Is a Feature
Every result should be rebuildable from raw with the same outputs. Name files clearly, script steps, lock versions, and include seeds. If it can’t be rerun, it isn’t done.
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Costs, Benefits, Thresholds
Map outcomes to actions. What happens if we act and we’re wrong? If we wait and we’re right? Pick thresholds that reflect asymmetric costs. “Is it significant?” is the wrong first question; “What should we do at this confidence?” is the right one.
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Add Options Last
Software offers a thousand toggles. Start with the minimal analysis that directly answers the question. Only add complexity if it changes an important conclusion or improves clarity. Depth is earned, not assumed.